Model estimate vs visible orders
Liquidation heatmap vs liquidity heatmap
Modeled positions, reported forced closes and resting orders answer different questions. Start by identifying which dataset the map uses.
What each map actually measures
| Question | Liquidation heatmap | Liquidity heatmap |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying data | Public OI, price, funding context and explicit model assumptions | Currently visible bid and ask orders |
| Observed or modeled? | Modeled future exposure | Observed order-book snapshot |
| Main use | Locate possible forced-deleveraging concentration | Inspect current depth, walls and potential price impact |
| Main failure mode | Unknown entries, leverage, margin mode and maintenance tiers | Orders can be cancelled, moved or spoofed before execution |
| Does brightness predict price? | No | No |
Three datasets, three questions
Modeled liquidation heatmap: where might leveraged exposure be forced closed if price reaches a level? Inputs and assumptions estimate positions that are not publicly visible.
Observed liquidations: which forced closes were reported on connected feeds during a chosen period? These are past events, with feed and venue coverage limits.
Order-book liquidity heatmap: where are visible resting bids and asks now or in recorded book snapshots? Orders may be cancelled or moved; displayed size is not guaranteed execution. Brightness in any of these views does not forecast price.
Example at $58,200
Hypothetical BTC price: $60,000. A modeled band at $58,200 is 3% below price and indicates estimated long-liquidation exposure. A tracker report of $2 million liquidated there is evidence of reported past events. A $2 million bid wall there is visible buying interest awaiting execution. The amounts refer to different things and cannot be added as if they were one pool of liquidity.
A disappearing band can reflect model updates; a disappearing bid wall can reflect cancellation or execution. Only executed trade data can confirm fills, and public feeds may be incomplete.
Which tool should you open?
Use the modeled map for scenarios and the tracker for reported events. Read the heatmap guide for scale and quality labels. For visible depth, the existing spot converter provides order-book execution estimates; its spot markets are a different dataset from perpetual liquidation exposure. Check executed order flow to understand the difference between orders and fills.
Open the TradingHub resources
Important: TradingHub provides informational tools and scenario estimates, not financial advice. Verify fees, margin rules, availability and current terms with the relevant venue before acting.